NEW ORDERS, SHIPMENTS and INVENTORIES M3

U.S. Bureau of the Census   >>   M3 advance (end of month+1) M3 release pdf (beginning month+2) M3 historical (used by EconStats)   >>   new order M3 index

Not seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Month   Avg over ...months in --> Quarter Year   Value on last month of --> Quarter Year         Ventilation, heating, air-conditioning, and refrigeration equipment manufacturing_NOT Seas Adj Avg value over Year   |   For index to all 378 variables see : Index Go to Monthly regression results : ln(IPm/IPm-1) = α + β1 ln(IPm-1/IPm-2) + β2 ln(IPm-1/GDPm-2) + Β2 ln(xm-1/xm-2) + em where IP is Industrial Prodn (Monthly), and xm is the M3 variable such as found below. Go to Quarterly regression results : ln(GDPq/GDPq-1) = α + β1 ln(GDPq-1/GDPq-2) + β2 ln(GDPq-1/GDPq-2) + Β2 ln(xq-1/xq-2) + eq where GDP is Gross Domestic Prod (Quarterly), and xq is the M3 variable such as found below.

                 |    Column (1)      |    Column (2)      |    Column (3)      |    Column (4)      |    Column (5)      |    Column (6)      |    Column (7)      |
                 | Value of Shipments | New Orders         | Unfilled Orders    | Total Inventories  | Materials and      | Work in Process    | Finished Goods     |
                 |                    |                    |                    |                    | Supplies           | Inventories        | Inventories        |
                 |                    |                    |                    |                    | Inventories        |                    |                    |
                 |-- nsa --           |-- nsa --           |-- nsa --           |-- nsa --           |-- nsa --           |-- nsa --           |-- nsa --           |
                 | Ventilation;       | Ventilation;       | Ventilation;       | Ventilation;       | Ventilation;       | Ventilation;       | Ventilation;       |
                 | heating;           | heating;           | heating;           | heating;           | heating;           | heating;           | heating;           |
                 | air-conditioning;  | air-conditioning;  | air-conditioning;  | air-conditioning;  | air-conditioning;  | air-conditioning;  | air-conditioning;  |
                 | and refrigeration  | and refrigeration  | and refrigeration  | and refrigeration  | and refrigeration  | and refrigeration  | and refrigeration  |
                 | equipment          | equipment          | equipment          | equipment          | equipment          | equipment          | equipment          |
                 | manufacturing      | manufacturing      | manufacturing      | manufacturing      | manufacturing      | manufacturing      | manufacturing      |
                 | U33HVS             | U33HNO             | U33HUO             | U33HTI             | U33HMI             | U33HWI             | U33HFI             |
                 | Mil$ nsa           | Mil$ nsa           | Mil$ nsa           | Mil$ nsa           | Mil$ nsa           | Mil$ nsa           | Mil$ nsa           |
                 | Avg over Year      | Avg over Year      | Avg over Year      | Avg over Year      | Avg over Year      | Avg over Year      | Avg over Year      |
                 | StD=0.068          | StD=0.083          | StD=0.162          | StD=0.086          |                    |                    |                    | Standard Deviation,,Standard deviations (StD) and correlations (Corr) calculated starting 1991 or as available.  Variables are LN(x(t)/x(t-1).
                 | AutoCorr=0.346     | AutoCorr=0.235     | AutoCorr=0.455     | AutoCorr=0.346     |                    |                    |                    | AutoCorr(x(y),x(y) where x(y) = ln(v(y)/v(y+1))
                 |-- Corr w GDP --    |-- Corr w GDP --    |-- Corr w GDP --    |-- Corr w GDP --    |-- Corr w GDP --    |-- Corr w GDP --    |-- Corr w GDP --    | -------- 
                 | GDP(y-1)=0.117     | GDP(y-1)=0.095     | GDP(y-1)=0.039     | GDP(y-1)=0.109     |                    |                    |                    | corr() where xy = ln(v(y)/v(y+1))
                 | GDP(y  )=0.102     | GDP(y  )=0.105     | GDP(y  )=-0.012    | GDP(y  )=0.043     |                    |                    |                    | corr() where xy = ln(v(y)/v(y+1))
                 | GDP(y+1)=-2.774    | GDP(y+1)=-1.944    | GDP(y+1)=-0.682    | GDP(y+1)=-0.865    |                    |                    |                    | corr() where xy = ln(v(y)/v(y+1))
Year             |____Jan92_to_Jul13 _|____Feb92_to_Jul13 _|____Jan92_to_Jul13 _|____Jan92_to_Jul13 _|___no_observations _|___no_observations _|___no_observations _|

                            pct chg from prev year (yoy) ________________ 

2013     %chg                   4.8                  4.9                 -9.0                 10.5                   na                   na                   na   
2012     %chg                   9.7                  7.8                  5.1                  1.8                   na                   na                   na   
2011     %chg                   6.5                  7.3                 19.2                 10.4                   na                   na                   na   
2010     %chg                   3.3                  9.5                -13.7                 -2.4                   na                   na                   na   
2009     %chg                 -13.9                -19.2                -15.3                -13.2                   na                   na                   na   
2008     %chg                   0.8                 -2.4                 31.8                 -2.1                   na                   na                   na   
2007     %chg                   3.3                  6.6                 24.2                  7.5                   na                   na                   na   
2006     %chg                   3.5                  2.5                 34.1                 12.3                   na                   na                   na   
2005     %chg                  10.2                 12.7                  8.6                 10.6                   na                   na                   na   

                            millions of dollars / month  ________________ 

2013     mil$/mn                 3703p                3697p                5307p                4915p                 na                   na                   na  
2012     mil$/mn                 3535                 3523                 5832                 4446                  na                   na                   na  
2011     mil$/mn                 3223                 3270                 5547                 4366                  na                   na                   na  
2010     mil$/mn                 3026                 3047                 4655                 3956                  na                   na                   na  
2009     mil$/mn                 2929                 2782                 5394                 4053                  na                   na                   na  
2008     mil$/mn                 3403                 3444                 6366                 4669                  na                   na                   na  
2007     mil$/mn                 3375                 3528                 4831                 4768                  na                   na                   na  
2006     mil$/mn                 3267                 3311                 3889                 4434                  na                   na                   na  
2005     mil$/mn                 3158                 3229                 2901                 3949                  na                   na                   na  
2004     mil$/mn                 2865                 2864                 2672                 3569                  na                   na                   na  
2003     mil$/mn                 2728                 2704                 2880                 3413                  na                   na                   na  
2002     mil$/mn                 2682                 2623                 3396                 3583                  na                   na                   na  
2001     mil$/mn                 2762                 2663                 4511                 4282                  na                   na                   na  
2000     mil$/mn                 2902                 2915                 5032                 4358                  na                   na                   na  
1999     mil$/mn                 2873                 2872                 4898                 4090                  na                   na                   na  
1998     mil$/mn                 2746                 2706                 5137                 3830                  na                   na                   na  
1997     mil$/mn                 2566                 2577                 5142                 4092                  na                   na                   na  
1996     mil$/mn                 2776                 2746                 5333                 4338                  na                   na                   na  
1995     mil$/mn                 2687                 2721                 5150                 4407                  na                   na                   na  
1994     mil$/mn                 2531                 2607                 4638                 3959                  na                   na                   na  
1993     mil$/mn                 2263                 2333                 3546                 3572                  na                   na                   na  
1992     mil$/mn                 2075                 2070                 3399                 3745                  na                   na                   na