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EconStats Forecasts of U.S. Economy
GDP and components, real
GDP
Interest Rates and Inflation
Interest Rates
Codes
Surveys of Forecasts Conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Survey of Professional Forecasters - quarterly since 1968.
http://www.phil.frb.org/econ/spf/index.html
Livingston Survey - every six months since 1946.
http://www.phil.frb.org/econ/liv/index.html
Survey of Forecasts for the UK Economy
Conducted by HM Treasury
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/economic_data_and_tools/forecast_for_the_uk_economy/data_forecasts_index.cfm
Recent Forecast Survey:
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media//446F6/August%202004.pdf
Survey of Professional Forecasts Conducted by the European Central Bank
http://www.ecb.int/stats/prices/indic/forecast/html/index.en.html
USA from January, 2004 - Wall Street Journal
3m 10y ____GDP growth_______________________ CPI chg $/Y $/e Unemp
TBill TNote 1stQtr 2ndQtr 3rdQtr 4thQtr May04 June June May
Jun04 Jun04 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004
Nariman Behravesh | Global Insight 0.95 3.75 3.60 4.30 3.80 4.20 1.90 119.00 1.15 6.20
R. BernerDavid Greenlaw | Morgan Stanley 1.35 4.25 4.20 4.20 4.60 4.60 1.80 113.00 1.17 6.20
David W. Berson | Fannie Mae 0.95 3.45 3.40 4.40 3.80 3.50 1.90 119.00 0.85 5.80
Ram Bhagavatula | The Royal Bank of Scotland 1.00 3.90 4.00 4.10 3.40 3.80 2.10 115.00 1.10 6.00
Kathleen Camilli | Mamilli Economics 1.15 4.00 2.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 1.90 119.00 1.16 6.00
Michael Cosgrove | Econoclast 1.00 3.70 2.90 3.50 3.50 3.50 1.50 110.00 1.20 6.30
J. Dewey Daane | Vanderbilt University 0.75 3.85 2.50 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.30 112.00 0.89 5.90
Richard DeKaser | National City 1.10 4.20 4.00 4.40 4.40 4.00 2.20 118.00 1.16 6.00
Robert V. DiClemente | Citigroup 0.95 3.90 3.90 5.10 5.20 4.30 1.40 124.00 1.10 5.90
William Dudley | Goldman Sachs 0.80 3.80 3.00 4.00 4.00 3.50 1.70 115.00 1.24 6.10
Douglas G. Duncon | na
Gail Fosler | Conference Board 0.90 4.35 3.90 4.60 4.50 4.60 2.50 123.00 1.03 5.80
Stephen Gallagher | Societe Generale 0.80 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 120.00 1.25 6.20
Maury Harris | UBS 1.00 3.80 4.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 1.50 110.00 1.25 6.30
Ethan Harris | Lehman Brothers 0.75 3.65 3.50 3.50 3.20 3.30 1.60 120.00 1.23 6.40
Tracy Herrick | Jefferies & Co. 0.80 3.80 2.80 3.10 3.50 3.50 2.60 110.00 1.20 5.90
Stuart G. Hoffman | PNC Financial 0.90 3.40 3.50 3.50 4.00 3.00 2.20 117.00 1.16 5.90
Peter Hooper | Deutsche Bank 1.10 3.75 4.20 3.70 3.80 3.90 1.50 117.00 1.22 6.30
Gene Huang | FedEx na
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick | Ford na
William B. Hummer | Wayne Hummer Inv. 1.10 3.80 3.80 4.00 3.60 3.30 2.30 121.00 1.08 6.00
Saul Hymans | RSQE University of Michigan 1.00 3.70 3.10 3.30 4.40 4.00 1.70 118.00 1.16 5.90
Kurt Karl | Swiss Re 0.90 3.70 3.10 3.20 3.90 3.70 1.40 125.00 1.22 6.10
Paul Kasriel | Northern Trust Company na
Lawrence Kudlow | Kudlow & Co. 1.02 3.50 3.70 4.50 4.50 4.50 2.30 120.00 1.18 5.90
Daniel Laufenberg | American Express 1.00 4.10 4.50 3.80 4.00 3.30 2.20 120.00 1.15 5.90
Edward Leamer | UCLA Anderson Forecast 1.24 3.56 2.50 2.80 2.90 3.20 2.00 na na 6.20
David Lereah | National Association of Realtors0.95 3.60 3.40 3.70 4.40 4.00 1.70 122.00 1.13 6.00
Mickey Levy | Bank of America 1.10 3.90 2.80 2.90 3.40 3.30 2.00 120.00 1.18 6.30
David L. Littmann | Comerica Bank 1.05 3.85 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.00 2.00 127.00 1.06 6.10
John Lonski | Moody's Investors Service 1.20 4.40 3.20 3.30 3.90 3.50 2.20 120.00 1.12 5.90
McGeeThomas W. Synnott III | US Trust 0.90 3.35 3.40 5.20 3.80 4.60 1.40 120.00 1.20 6.20
Nicholas S. Perna | Perna Associates 1.05 4.38 2.70 2.70 3.10 3.30 2.20 119.00 1.14 6.00
Joel Prakken | Macroeconomic Advisers 1.20 3.80 4.40 4.50 4.10 3.80 1.50 na na 5.90
Arun Raha | Eaton Corp. 1.00 4.40 4.30 4.40 4.20 3.60 2.40 119.00 1.10 6.00
Maria F. Ramirez | MFR Inc. 1.00 3.25 3.30 2.50 2.70 3.50 1.80 115.00 1.25 6.30
David Resler | Nomura 1.00 3.60 3.70 3.80 3.30 3.40 2.00 118.00 1.14 6.00
Richard D. Rippe | Prudential Securities 0.90 3.90 4.00 4.70 5.00 4.50 1.90 118.00 1.12 6.10
David Rosenberg | Merrill Lynch 0.76 3.40 3.50 2.80 3.20 4.20 1.40 110.00 1.25 6.30
John RydingDavid Malpass | Bear Stearns 1.00 4.50 4.00 4.00 4.10 4.00 1.70 122.00 1.05 6.10
Ian Shepherdson | High Frequency Economics 1.00 4.50 5.00 5.00 4.00 4.00 1.80 120.00 1.00 6.30
A. Gary Shilling | Shilling & Co. 0.70 2.90 -1.60 -2.00 1.80 2.40 1.20 125.00 1.05 7.70
ShroudsRobert Fry | DuPont 1.00 4.00 3.00 4.50 4.50 4.00 2.00 115.00 1.20 6.00
John Silvia | Wachovia Corporation 1.25 4.00 3.60 3.40 3.60 3.80 1.60 115.00 1.24 6.00
Allen Sinai | Decision Economics 0.86 3.85 3.10 3.40 4.00 4.30 1.70 130.00 1.08 6.40
James F. Smith | University of North Carolina 0.91 3.65 5.40 6.80 4.20 4.60 1.00 129.00 1.08 5.50
Sung Won Sohn | Wells Fargo & Co. 1.00 4.05 4.00 4.20 4.00 3.80 1.40 125.00 1.14 5.90
Neal Soss | CSFB na 2.75 3.70 3.70 4.30 3.60 1.60 113.00 1.22 6.20
Susan M. Sterne | Economic Analysis Assoc. 1.80 4.30 3.90 4.10 4.20 4.00 2.00 119.00 1.10 5.80
Donald Straszheim | Straszheim Advisors 1.25 4.60 3.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 2.00 120.00 1.15 6.00
Diane C. Swonk | Bank One 0.98 4.15 3.10 4.30 3.50 3.10 1.80 120.00 1.17 6.20
Gary Thayer | A.G. Edwards 1.10 3.90 3.50 4.50 4.00 2.50 2.30 115.00 1.22 5.80
Brian S. Wesbury | Griffin Kubik 1.20 4.50 4.00 5.00 5.50 5.50 2.60 122.00 1.12 5.70
Henry Willmore | Barclays Capital 0.90 3.75 4.50 3.00 3.50 4.50 2.50 118.00 1.20 6.20
William T. Wilson | Ernst & Young 1.10 3.90 4.50 5.00 4.10 4.00 2.10 110.00 1.11 6.00
David Wyss | Standard & Poor's 0.75 3.60 3.50 4.90 5.30 4.80 1.90 115.00 1.25 6.10
Richard Yamarone | Argus Research 1.10 3.85 2.00 2.50 2.90 2.10 2.50 118.00 1.18 6.50
Mark Zandi | Economy.com 1.20 4.10 3.10 4.00 4.40 4.50 1.70 120.00 1.10 6.30
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USA from July 3, 2003 - Wall Street Journal, page A2
3m 10y ____GDP growth_______________________ CPI chg $/Y $/e Unemp
TBill TNote 3rd Qtr 4thQtr 1stQtr 2ndQtr Nov 03 Dec Dec Nov
Dec03 Dec03 2003 2003 2004 2004 2003 2003 2003 2003
James F. Smith, University of North Carolina 0.91 3.65 5.40 6.80 4.20 4.60 1.00 129.00 1.08 5.50
Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics 1.00 4.50 5.00 5.00 4.00 4.00 1.80 120.00 1.00 6.30
David L. Littmann, Comerica Bank 1.05 3.85 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.00 2.00 127.00 1.06 6.10
Daniel Laufenberg, American Express 1.00 4.10 4.50 3.80 4.00 3.30 2.20 120.00 1.15 5.90
Maury Harris, UBS 1.00 3.80 4.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 1.50 110.00 1.25 6.30
Henry Willmore, Barclays Capital 0.90 3.75 4.50 3.00 3.50 4.50 2.50 118.00 1.20 6.20
William T. Wilson, Ernst & Young 1.10 3.90 4.50 5.00 4.10 4.00 2.10 110.00 1.11 6.00
Joel Prakken, Macroeconomic Advisers 1.20 3.80 4.40 4.50 4.10 3.80 1.50 na na 5.90
Arun Raha, Eaton Corp. 1.00 4.40 4.30 4.40 4.20 3.60 2.40 119.00 1.10 6.00
Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank 1.10 3.75 4.20 3.70 3.80 3.90 1.50 117.00 1.22 6.30
R. Berner / David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley 1.35 4.25 4.20 4.20 4.60 4.60 1.80 113.00 1.17 6.20
Sung Won Sohn, Wells Fargo & Co. 1.00 4.05 4.00 4.20 4.00 3.80 1.40 125.00 1.14 5.90
Richard D. Rippe, Prudential Securities 0.90 3.90 4.00 4.70 5.00 4.50 1.90 118.00 1.12 6.10
John Ryding / David Malpass, Bear Stearns 1.00 4.50 4.00 4.00 4.10 4.00 1.70 122.00 1.05 6.10
Richard DeKaser, National City 1.10 4.20 4.00 4.40 4.40 4.00 2.20 118.00 1.16 6.00
Ram Bhagavatula, The Royal Bank of Scotland 1.00 3.90 4.00 4.10 3.40 3.80 2.10 115.00 1.10 6.00
Brian S. Wesbury, Griffin, Kubik 1.20 4.50 4.00 5.00 5.50 5.50 2.60 122.00 1.12 5.70
Robert V. DiClemente, Citigroup 0.95 3.90 3.90 5.10 5.20 4.30 1.40 124.00 1.10 5.90
Susan M. Sterne, Economic Analysis Assoc. 1.80 4.30 3.90 4.10 4.20 4.00 2.00 119.00 1.10 5.80
Gail Fosler, Conference Board 0.90 4.35 3.90 4.60 4.50 4.60 2.50 123.00 1.03 5.80
William B. Hummer, Wayne Hummer Inv. 1.10 3.80 3.80 4.00 3.60 3.30 2.30 121.00 1.08 6.00
David Resler, Nomura 1.00 3.60 3.70 3.80 3.30 3.40 2.00 118.00 1.14 6.00
Lawrence Kudlow, Kudlow & Co., LLC 1.02 3.50 3.70 4.50 4.50 4.50 2.30 120.00 1.18 5.90
Neal Soss, CSFB na 2.75 3.70 3.70 4.30 3.60 1.60 113.00 1.22 6.20
Nariman Behravesh, Global Insight 0.95 3.75 3.60 4.30 3.80 4.20 1.90 119.00 1.15 6.20
John Silvia, Wachovia Corporation 1.25 4.00 3.60 3.40 3.60 3.80 1.60 115.00 1.24 6.00
Stuart G. Hoffman, PNC Financial 0.90 3.40 3.50 3.50 4.00 3.00 2.20 117.00 1.16 5.90
Gary Thayer, A.G. Edwards 1.10 3.90 3.50 4.50 4.00 2.50 2.30 115.00 1.22 5.80
David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch 0.76 3.40 3.50 2.80 3.20 4.20 1.40 110.00 1.25 6.30
David Wyss, Standard & Poor's 0.75 3.60 3.50 4.90 5.30 4.80 1.90 115.00 1.25 6.10
Ethan Harris, Lehman Brothers 0.75 3.65 3.50 3.50 3.20 3.30 1.60 120.00 1.23 6.40
David Lereah, National Association of Realtors 0.95 3.60 3.40 3.70 4.40 4.00 1.70 122.00 1.13 6.00
McGee / Thomas W. Synnott, III, US Trust 0.90 3.35 3.40 5.20 3.80 4.60 1.40 120.00 1.20 6.20
David W. Berson, Fannie Mae 0.95 3.45 3.40 4.40 3.80 3.50 1.90 119.00 0.85 5.80
Maria F. Ramirez, MFR Inc. 1.00 3.25 3.30 2.50 2.70 3.50 1.80 115.00 1.25 6.30
John Lonski, Moody's Investors Service 1.20 4.40 3.20 3.30 3.90 3.50 2.20 120.00 1.12 5.90
Allen Sinai, Decision Economics 0.86 3.85 3.10 3.40 4.00 4.30 1.70 130.00 1.08 6.40
Kurt Karl, Swiss Re 0.90 3.70 3.10 3.20 3.90 3.70 1.40 125.00 1.22 6.10
Saul Hymans, RSQE University of Michigan 1.00 3.70 3.10 3.30 4.40 4.00 1.70 118.00 1.16 5.90
Diane C. Swonk, Bank One 0.98 4.15 3.10 4.30 3.50 3.10 1.80 120.00 1.17 6.20
Mark Zandi, Economy.com 1.20 4.10 3.10 4.00 4.40 4.50 1.70 120.00 1.10 6.30
Stephen Gallagher, Societe Generale 0.80 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 120.00 1.25 6.20
Donald Straszheim, Straszheim Advisors 1.25 4.60 3.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 2.00 120.00 1.15 6.00
William Dudley, Goldman Sachs 0.80 3.80 3.00 4.00 4.00 3.50 1.70 115.00 1.24 6.10
Shrouds / Robert Fry, DuPont 1.00 4.00 3.00 4.50 4.50 4.00 2.00 115.00 1.20 6.00
Michael Cosgrove, Econoclast 1.00 3.70 2.90 3.50 3.50 3.50 1.50 110.00 1.20 6.30
Mickey Levy, Bank of America 1.10 3.90 2.80 2.90 3.40 3.30 2.00 120.00 1.18 6.30
Tracy Herrick, Jefferies & Co. 0.80 3.80 2.80 3.10 3.50 3.50 2.60 110.00 1.20 5.90
Nicholas S. Perna, Perna Associates 1.05 4.38 2.70 2.70 3.10 3.30 2.20 119.00 1.14 6.00
Edward Leamer, UCLA Anderson Forecast 1.24 3.56 2.50 2.80 2.90 3.20 2.00 na na 6.20
J. Dewey Daane, Vanderbilt University 0.75 3.85 2.50 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.30 112.00 0.89 5.90
Kathleen Camilli, Mamilli Economics 1.15 4.00 2.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 1.90 119.00 1.16 6.00
Richard Yamarone, Argus Research 1.10 3.85 2.00 2.50 2.90 2.10 2.50 118.00 1.18 6.50
A. Gary Shilling, Shilling & Co. 0.70 2.90 -1.60 -2.00 1.80 2.40 1.20 125.00 1.05 7.70
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
AVERAGE, 1.01 3.85 3.49 3.79 3.85 3.75 1.90 118.54 1.14 6.09
MAX 1.80 4.60 5.40 6.80 5.50 5.50 2.60 130.00 1.25 7.70
MIN 0.70 2.75 -1.60 -2.00 1.80 2.10 1.00 110.00 0.85 5.50
StDeviation 0.18 0.39 0.98 1.17 0.71 0.66 0.37 4.68 0.08 0.30
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USA Source January 2, 2003 Wall Street Journal page A2
3 mon 10 yr Corport Housing
T Bill T Note _________ GDP growth _________ CPI Unemp Profits Starts
2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003
June June qtr 1 qtr 2 qtr 3 qtr 4 May May
Susan M. Sterne Economic Analysis 2.25 5.50 4.6 4.0 4.2 4.3 2.5 5.6 12.0 1.69
Gail Fosler The Conference Board 1.50 5.10 4.2 3.1 4.1 5.2 2.5 5.9 9.7 1.62
Stephen Gallagher Societe Generale 1.25 4.50 4.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 2.3 5.7 8.0 1.67
Ian Shepherdson High Frequency Econo 1.25 4.75 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 2.2 6.5 25.0 1.70
James F. Smith University of North 1.48 4.00 3.8 4.3 3.2 2.8 1.5 5.6 21.2 1.74
Lawrence Kudlow Kudlow & Co. LLC 1.50 5.00 3.6 4.5 4.5 5.0 2.1 5.8 13.0 1.60
David Malpass/ John Rydi Bear Stearns & Co. I 1.60 4.80 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.1 1.8 5.9 10.0 1.65
Michael K. Evans Evans Carroll & Asso 1.30 4.30 3.5 2.0 3.5 2.5 3.0 6.2 8.0 1.75
Tracy Herrick Jefferies & Company 1.20 4.00 3.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.7 5.7 7.0 1.75
David L. Littman Comerica Bank 1.60 4.80 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.2 5.7 15.0 1.64
Paul McCulley PIMCO 1.20 4.15 3.5 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.3 5.8 9.0 1.65
Henry Willmore Barclays Capital 1.40 4.40 3.5 4.5 4.5 2.0 2.3 5.9 5.0 1.60
Jim Meil/ Arun Raha Eaton Corp. 1.50 4.30 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.2 6.0 7.6 1.64
Andrew Hodge/ Wendy Mak Global Insight 1.30 5.60 3.2 3.3 3.9 4.5 2.2 6.1 2.9 1.58
Kurt Karl Swiss Re 1.60 5.00 3.2 3.6 4.2 3.9 1.9 5.8 8.2 1.67
Richard D. Rippe Prudential Securitie 1.30 4.50 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.3 2.3 6.1 16.5 1.60
Daniel Laufenberg American Express 1.50 4.50 3.1 3.0 4.1 3.8 2.0 5.7 8.0 1.70
John D. Mueller LBMC LLC 1.50 4.90 3.1 5.5 6.7 6.0 0.9 5.6 N.A. 1.86
Diane C. Swonk Bank One NA 1.44 4.00 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.3 2.9 6.1 17.5 1.60
David Wyss Standard and Poor's 1.20 4.30 3.1 3.1 4.5 3.8 2.2 6.4 5.5 1.59
James W. Coons Huntington National 1.50 4.35 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.4 5.8 10.0 1.60
Richard DeKaser National City Corpor 1.27 4.53 3.0 3.2 4.3 4.4 2.4 5.8 4.3 1.58
Neal Soss CSFB 1.25 3.40 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.4 6.1 4.7 1.61
Brian S. Wesbury Griffin Kubik Stephe 1.25 4.50 3.0 3.0 4.8 5.2 2.6 5.8 11.0 1.71
Stuart Hoffman PNC Financial Servic 1.25 4.05 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.5 2.4 5.8 12.4 1.64
John Lonski Moody's Investors Se 1.53 4.40 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.7 2.3 5.7 6.0 1.68
Robert T. McGee/Thomas W US Trust Company 1.20 4.30 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.8 2.2 5.8 7.7 1.59
David Lereah National Association 1.80 4.40 2.7 3.0 3.6 3.2 2.4 5.7 4.0 1.66
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Maria Fiorini Ramire 1.25 4.00 2.6 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.1 6.2 8.4 1.66
Joel Prakken/ Chris Varv Macroeconomic Advise 1.20 4.32 2.6 3.4 3.7 3.7 2.0 5.7 2.5 1.63
David W. Berson Fannie Mae 1.30 4.40 2.5 3.5 3.7 3.6 2.0 5.8 5.1 1.64
Maury Harris UBS Warburg 1.60 4.60 2.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 2.3 5.7 6.9 1.58
William B. Hummer Wayne Hummer Investm 1.31 4.14 2.5 3.1 3.6 3.8 2.1 5.8 6.9 1.60
Robert Shrouds/Robert Fr DuPont Company 1.30 4.50 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 1.9 6.0 7.0 1.60
Allen Sinai Decision Economics I 1.27 4.17 2.5 2.2 2.9 3.2 2.2 6.5 7.8 1.63
Sung Won Sohn Wells Fargo & Co. 1.30 4.40 2.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 1.5 5.8 7.0 1.65
Gary Thayer A.G. Edwards 1.40 4.50 2.5 3.5 3.0 4.5 2.1 5.7 8.5 1.63
Mark Zandi Economy.com 1.70 4.50 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.8 2.2 6.3 6.9 1.59
Richard Berner/ David Gr Morgan Stanley 1.50 4.50 2.3 3.8 3.9 3.5 1.9 5.9 9.9 1.64
David Resler Nomura Securities In 1.25 4.25 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.8 1.8 6.0 9.3 1.63
Edward Leamer UCLA Anderson Foreca 2.03 4.00 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.2 2.4 6.1 5.0 1.60
David Rosenberg Merrill Lynch 1.20 4.00 2.2 3.3 3.0 3.5 2.4 6.5 12.0 1.67
Saul Hymans/ Joan Crary/ RSQE University of M 1.72 4.03 2.1 4.3 4.2 4.2 2.4 6.1 -0.9 1.61
Nicholas S. Perna Perna Associates 1.47 4.53 2.1 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.3 5.5 7.0 1.52
Richard Yamarone Argus Research Corp. 1.70 4.60 2.1 2.5 3.0 2.5 3.3 5.6 15.0 1.61
Ram Bhagavatula The Royal Bank of Sc 1.10 3.75 2.0 2.8 4.1 4.3 2.1 6.1 18.0 1.47
J. Dewey Daane Vanderbilt Universit 1.60 4.50 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.0 5.9 3.0 1.50
Peter Hooper Deutsche Bank Securi 1.75 4.50 2.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 1.4 6.1 8.0 1.60
William T. Wilson Ernst & Young 1.60 5.40 2.0 5.0 4.0 4.1 1.4 5.6 5.0 1.60
Robert DiClemente Citibank SSB 1.30 4.60 1.8 2.7 3.3 4.1 1.9 5.9 7.0 1.65
Mike Cosgrove Econoclast 1.30 4.30 1.6 2.9 3.5 4.0 2.4 6.0 9.0 1.59
William C. Dudley Goldman Sachs & Co. 1.00 4.20 1.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 2.1 6.4 5.8 1.53
Ethan S. Harris Lehman Brothers 1.20 4.20 1.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.3 6.2 5.5 1.50
Donald H. Straszheim Straszheim Global Ad 1.40 4.40 1.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 6.1 7.0 1.65
A. Gary Shilling A. Gary Shilling & C 0.75 3.50 -2.0 -2.0 2.0 3.0 1.2 7.3 -5.0 1.20
Average 1.41 4.42 2.7 3.2 3.7 3.7 2.2 6.0 8.5 1.62
max 2.25 5.60 4.6 5.5 6.7 6.0 3.3 7.3 25.0 1.86
min 0.75 3.40 -2.0 -2.0 2.0 2.0 0.9 5.5 -5.0 1.20
StdDev 0.25 0.42 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 5.1 0.09
Notes Treasury bill rates are on a bond-equivalent basis
GDP refers to real gross domestic product at an annualized growth rate
CPI refers to year-to-year change in the consumer-price index
Unemployment rate is the Jobless Rate.
Corporate Profits refers to year-to-year percent change in corporate profits
(before taxes and with inventory-valuation and capital-consumption
adjustments) using standards of Bureau of Economic Analysis's National
Income and Product Account
Housing Starts in millions of total units.
More Forecasts - USA 2003
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Real GDP CPI unempl INTEREST_RATES
2003 growth inflatn rate 3-mon 10-yr
T-Bill T-Bond
Philadelphia Fed, survey 11/22/2002 2.6 2.2 5.7 1.6 4.4
EconStats (Dec 2002) 2.8 2.3 5.5 2.1 4.7
Garrow Economics 2.6 2.0 4.8 1.8 4.8
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USA Source January 4, 2002 Wall Street Journal page A2
3 mon 30 yr
T-Bill T Bond GDP GDP GDP GDP CPI $/Yen $/euro unemp
Jun 02 Jun 02 2002q1 2002q2 2002q3 2002q4 May 02 Jun 02 Jun 02 May 02
AVERAGE 1.89 5.06 0.86 2.43 3.42 3.69 1.36 133 0.90 6.2
Maureen Allyn Zurich Scudder Inv 1.80 4.10 -0.9 1.1 2.1 2.8 1.0 135 0.92 6.2
R. Berner / D. Greenlaw Morgan Stanley 2.50 5.35 -0.2 1.9 4.8 4.4 0.4 125 0.97 6.5
David W. Berson Fannie Mae 2.00 5.15 0.8 2.5 4.1 4.0 1.8 135 0.85 5.9
Ram Bhagavatula Royal Bank of Scotland 2.25 5.00 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 1.4 132 0.89 5.7
Kathleen Camilli Mamilli Economics 2.00 5.00 0.5 2.0 3.0 3.5 1.7 130 0.88 6.0
Jim Coons Huntington National Bank 2.00 4.60 -1.0 1.5 2.8 3.6 1.2 125 0.90 6.0
Michael Cosgrove Econoclast 2.50 5.50 1.0 2.8 4.0 4.0 1.8 135 0.95 6.2
J. Dewey Daane Vanderbilt U 2.00 5.50 -0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 2.3 128 0.90 6.2
Richard DeKaser National City 2.08 5.42 0.8 3.2 3.5 3.1 1.1 140 0.92 6.1
Robert V. DiClemente Citigroup/Salomon 1.55 5.20 1.0 3.0 5.6 5.0 1.2 132 0.93 6.0
William Dudley Goldman, Sachs 1.75 4.80 -1.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 1.1 128 1.01 6.3
Michael K. Evans Evans, Carroll & Assoc 1.50 5.50 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.5 2.5 132 0.90 6.4
Gail Fosler Conference Board 1.75 5.15 2.3 2.0 3.6 3.2 2.3 119 0.88 6.4
Robert Fry DuPont 1.80 4.75 3.0 2.8 4.0 3.0 1.0 125 0.89 6.5
Stephen Gallagher Societe Generale 1.75 5.50 0.7 2.4 4.3 4.1 1.5 145 0.85 6.1
Maury Harris UBS Warburg 1.70 4.70 -1.0 3.0 3.2 4.0 1.2 130 0.90 6.2
Tracy Herrick Jefferies & Co. 1.40 4.25 1.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 1.2 140 0.95 6.7
Andrew Hodge DRI-WEFA 1.97 5.40 -0.2 1.7 3.0 4.3 1.8 137 1.06 6.3
Stuart G. Hoffman PNC Financial Services 1.75 4.80 -1.2 2.0 3.5 4.0 1.6 133 0.91 6.3
Peter Hooper Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown 2.00 5.00 0.5 3.3 4.5 4.7 1.5 130 0.98 6.4
William B. Hummer Wayne Hummer Inv. 2.00 5.24 0.9 2.6 3.4 3.9 1.8 121 0.92 6.1
N. Lazar / E. Hyman ISI Group 1.50 5.50 2.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.7 130 0.90 6.5
Saul Hymans RSQE U of Michigan 1.70 4.70 1.0 1.3 3.3 3.3 1.3 121 0.95 6.5
Van Jolissaint DaimlerChrysler 1.52 4.40 -2.0 1.4 4.3 3.1 0.8 130 0.85 6.6
Kurt Karl Swiss Re 1.50 5.30 -1.2 -0.4 2.7 4.5 1.3 130 0.93 6.2
Lawrence Kudlow Kudlow & Co., LLC 2.10 5.25 3.1 3.8 3.5 4.5 1.5 150 0.83 5.7
Daniel Laufenberg American Express 1.75 5.10 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.2 1.3 125 0.92 5.9
Mickey Levy Bank of America 2.30 5.38 1.0 3.9 4.6 3.9 1.3 137 0.84 6.0
David L. Littmann Comerica Bank 1.80 5.20 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.5 0.8 135 0.89 5.9
John Lonski Moody's Investors Service 2.35 5.40 0.6 3.5 4.2 4.2 1.4 135 0.90 5.9
D. Malpass / J. Ryding Bear Stearns 1.50 4.50 -0.3 1.7 2.9 3.8 0.8 140 0.90 6.4
Paul A. McCulley PIMCO 1.80 5.40 1.5 3.5 2.5 2.0 1.4 135 0.92 6.8
John Mueller LBMC 2.00 6.00 4.0 5.5 5.4 5.4 0.6 135 0.83 5.7
David Orr Wachovia 1.60 5.00 -1.0 1.5 2.5 3.0 1.5 132 0.92 6.5
Nicholas S. Perna Perna Assoc 2.39 5.59 -1.4 2.5 4.4 4.1 1.3 127 0.93 6.6
Maria F. Ramirez MFR 2.00 5.25 0.9 1.4 2.7 3.7 1.4 135 0.93 6.2
David Resler Nomura Securities Intl 1.85 5.25 2.3 3.7 3.3 3.2 1.3 128 0.91 6.1
Richard D. Rippe Prudential Securities 1.80 5.20 2.6 3.5 4.3 4.5 1.5 130 0.90 6.3
Ian Shepherdson High Frequency Economics 2.50 5.50 2.5 3.5 3.0 4.5 1.1 140 0.85 6.8
A. Gary Shilling Shilling & Co. 1.25 4.00 -2.8 -2.5 -2.3 1.0 -0.5 145 0.85 6.7
Allen Sinai Decision Economics 1.90 4.92 -0.8 1.0 2.8 3.3 0.9 155 0.81 6.1
James F. Smith U of North Carolina 1.95 3.75 5.4 4.2 6.8 3.5 1.6 133 0.84 5.5
Sung Won Sohn Wells Fargo & Co. 2.50 6.00 0.2 2.1 3.2 3.8 2.0 135 0.85 6.5
Neal Soss Credit Suisse First Boston 1.35 3.75 1.3 2.0 3.2 3.4 0.7 130 0.92 6.2
Bruce Steinberg Merrill Lynch 1.70 5.00 -0.5 3.0 5.0 5.0 1.0 135 0.92 6.7
Susan M. Sterne Economic Analysis Assoc 2.50 5.00 3.0 1.4 3.2 3.1 2.2 125 1.00 5.8
Diane C. Swonk Bank One 1.70 5.10 0.1 3.8 5.0 4.8 1.9 117 0.99 6.2
Thomas W. Synnott, III U.S. Trust Co. of New York 1.60 5.20 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.3 1.6 130 0.91 6.2
Gary Thayer A.G. Edwards 2.10 5.50 1.0 2.5 2.0 3.5 1.8 140 0.85 6.1
Brian S. Wesbury Griffin, Kubik 1.90 5.00 -0.3 1.1 2.7 3.8 0.9 145 0.92 6.1
Henry Willmore Barclays Capital 2.10 5.00 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.0 1.2 135 0.83 6.2
William T. Wilson Ernst & Young 1.35 4.00 0.7 1.8 2.7 2.2 0.9 140 0.88 6.2
David Wyss Standard & Poor's 1.70 5.10 1.0 2.6 3.3 4.6 1.4 130 0.91 6.6
Richard Yamarone Argus Research 2.30 5.85 2.5 4.4 4.0 4.1 2.9 130 0.88 5.7
Mark Zandi Economy.com 2.10 5.30 -0.5 1.3 3.0 4.5 1.5 125 0.92 6.3
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Economic Forecasts for 1999 USA from December 17, 1998
Forecasts for 1999 posted December 17, 1998 by Businessweek.
http://www.businessweek.com/1998/52/b3610005.htm
FORECASTS FOR 1999
PERCENT CHANGE IN REAL REAL TreasuryYields JOBLESS
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GDP CPI 3-MO. 30-YR. RATE
' 1999 Qtr4 98 1999 1999 1999
I II III IV to Qtr4 99 IV Q IV Q IV Q
-------------------------- (% CHANGE)
ROSANNE M. CAHN Credit Suisse First Boston 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.0 4.50 4.80 4.8
KATHLEEN M. CAMILLI Tucker Anthony 5.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.3 5.00 5.50 4.0
CONSTANTINE G. SORAS Bell Atlantic 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.1 4.36 5.20 4.4
WILLIAM C. DUNKELBERG Natl. Fed. of Indep. Business 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.8 1.9 4.60 5.00 4.9
DANIEL E. LAUFENBERG American Express Fin. Advisors 3.1 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 4.75 5.75 4.4
MICHAEL R. ENGLUND MMS International 2.5 2.7 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.6 4.05 4.50 4.3
SUSAN HICKOK The Prudential Insurance Co. 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.2 4.50 6.00 5.2
SUZANNE RIZZO Maria Fiorini Ramirez 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 4.50 6.00 4.8
JAMES J. BARKOCY Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 4.50 5.40 4.9
MAURY HARRIS PaineWebber 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 4.20 5.00 4.5
MICHAEL P. NIEMIRA Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi 2.3 2.4 2.1 3.0 2.4 2.2 4.50 5.15 4.7
TIM O'NEILL Bank of Montreal/Harris Bank 1.3 2.1 3.0 3.2 2.4 3.0 5.25 6.45 4.4
IAN SHEPHERDSON High Frequency Economics 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.4 2.5 4.50 5.50 4.0
BILL CHENEY John Hancock Financial Services 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 4.25 5.40 4.8
JOHN R. WILLIAMS Bankers Trust 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.9 4.60 5.50 4.3
MICHAEL R. PASLAWSKYJ The CIT Group 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2.2 2.0 4.00 4.90 5.0
MARTIN A. REGALIA U.S. Chamber of Commerce 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.2 2.4 4.30 5.40 5.0
DICK BERNER Mellon Bank 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.9 3.80 5.20 4.9
PRAKKEN, VARVARES Macroeconomic Advisers 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.4 4.30 5.30 4.8
ROBERT H. SHROUDS Du Pont 0.5 1.4 2.8 3.8 2.1 2.3 4.50 5.30 5.0
THEODORE H. TUNG National City Corp. 2.0 2.4 1.8 2.8 2.1 2.1 4.00 4.90 4.8
MORRIS COHEN Morris Cohen & Associates 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.3 4.00 5.00 4.8
JIM COONS Huntington National Bank 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.3 3.84 5.82 5.0
JOSEPH W. DUNCAN The Dun & Bradstreet Corp. 2.4 1.9 1.5 2.3 2.0 2.1 4.25 5.30 4.8
STEPHEN GALLAGHER Societe Generale 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 4.25 5.25 4.5
VAN JOLISSAINT DaimlerChrysler 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.5 4.50 5.60 5.3
KURT E. KARL WEFA 1.5 1.6 2.5 2.6 2.0 2.1 4.20 5.00 4.8
KEN MAYLAND Key Corp. 2.0 1.5 1.5 3.0 2.0 2.5 3.97 4.82 5.0
SUNG WON SOHN Wells Fargo & Co. 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 4.25 4.80 5.0
DAVID M. BLITZER Standard & Poor's 1.4 1.0 2.7 2.7 1.9 2.7 3.30 4.30 4.6
ROBERT H. CHANDROSS Republic National Bank of New York 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.3 1.8 2.0 4.15 5.10 4.8
NICHOLAS S. PERNA Fleet Financial Group 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.6 1.8 2.4 4.20 5.20 5.0
RICHARD D. RIPPE Prudential Securities 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.8 2.3 4.20 5.50 4.9
DAVID A. WYSS Standard & Poor's DRI 1.3 1.1 2.4 2.3 1.8 2.7 4.20 4.90 4.7
MICHAEL P. CAREY Credit Lyonnais 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.3 1.7 2.2 4.45 5.30 5.0
COOPER, MADIGAN Business Week 2.1 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 3.60 4.50 5.2
STUART G. HOFFMAN PNC Bank Corp. 1.8 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.7 2.0 3.70 4.63 4.9
CHARLES REEDER Charles Reeder Associates 0.1 -0.1 2.9 3.9 1.7 2.4 4.50 4.80 5.1
THOMAS SYNNOTT U.S. Trust Co. of N.Y. 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.7 2.2 3.75 5.00 4.9
MARK ZANDI Regional Financial Associates 1.3 0.6 1.0 3.8 1.7 2.3 4.25 5.35 5.0
MAUREEN F. ALLYN Scudder Kemper Investments 2.0 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 4.50 4.80 5.0
WILLIAM C. DUDLEY Goldman Sachs 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.8 1.5 1.9 3.60 4.70 5.2
L. DOUGLAS LEE HSBC Securities 2.1 0.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 2.5 3.70 4.90 5.5
LYNN O. MICHAELIS Weyerhaeuser Co. 1.8 0.7 2.3 1.5 1.5 2.7 4.50 5.90 4.5
DAVID RESLER Nomura Securities Intl. 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 3.90 4.75 5.2
BRUCE STEINBERG Merrill Lynch 1.1 1.2 1.5 2.1 1.5 1.5 3.70 4.70 5.2
ANTHONY CHAN Banc One Investment Advisors 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.8 3.80 4.75 5.0
ROBERT A. BRUSCA The Nikko Securities Co. 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.1 3.1 4.20 5.40 5.5
ROBERT McGEE Tokai Bank Ltd. 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 1.1 1.3 3.00 4.25 5.0
PHILIP BRAVERMAN DKB Securities (USA) 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 3.50 4.00 5.1
JOHN LIPSKY Chase Manhattan Bank 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.3 1.0 1.3 3.50 4.50 5.0
EDWARD YARDENI Deutsche Bank Securities 2.2 1.5 0.0 -1.0 0.7 1.0 3.00 4.00 4.8
WILLIAM A. BROWN J. P. Morgan 1.0 -1.0 -2.0 1.5 -0.1 2.0 3.05 4.75 5.7
RONALD R. REUSS Piper Jaffray 0.5 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.5 0.5 3.25 4.50 5.5
Consensus CONSENSUS 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1% 4.11% 5.08% 4.9%
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Click here for a cautionary tale regarding economic forecasts.
| IMF Predictions for 2001 (released April 26, 2001 in WEO) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Current |
Projections | ||
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| World Output | 4.8 | 3.2 | 3.9 |
| Advanced economies | 4.1 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Major industrial nations | 3.8 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| United States | 5.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Japan | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Germany | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| France | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Italy | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| United Kingdom | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Canada | 4.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Other advanced economies | 5.2 | 3.0 | 3.8 |
| Developing countries | 5.8 | 5.0 | 5.6 |
| Africa | 3.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| Asia | 6.9 | 5.9 | 6.3 |
| China | 8.0 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| India | 6.4 | 5.6 | 6.1 |
| ASEAN-4 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 4.7 |
| Middle East, Malta, Turkey | 5.4 | 2.9 | 4.6 |
| Western Hemisphere | 4.1 | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| Brazil | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 |